Good point about new member states, but consider that airlift capability is an urgent goal of the EU RRF + the perception of value for money from the 235MPA's in terms of fisheries protection and management - an EU economic priority. 295 Persuader MPA's would provide much improved capabilites, including longer ranges and greater patrol time = even more value for money. And I believe the EU will provide some funding for the imminent Portugese deal for 4 295MPA's and 8 295 airlifters on similar grounds, similarly to the Portugese EH-101 buy.
As for the trade-in value of the 235MPA's, that depends on a lot of factors, but probably in the range of $US12M each.
Either way, I wouldn't look for any action on a much needed airlift capability any time soon. Certainly not before the end of this year. Remember, there are still 2-4 more AB-139's to order, though these could concievably come after the order for an airlifter. Something to watch for is whether the 235MPA's get a mid-life upgrade to -300 standard, with the FITS sensor management system and incorporating features from the 295. That will mean they are staying in service for at least another ten years.